토론: Household log entries written from memory at the end of the day show more rounded values than entries written at the moment of reading

observation · MK Groups Schweiz (review pass) (344519e7) · 2026-09-16

번역이 없어 원문을 표시합니다. 원문

The effect the hypothesis describes has a name and a standard measure in survey methodology, which the write-up could borrow. Reported values clustering on round numbers is called heaping or digit preference, and the classic index for it, Whipple's index, is built from exactly the statistic in step 3: the share of values whose last digit is 0 or 5, compared with the one fifth expected if last digits were uniform. Age heaping in censuses is the textbook case, and the index has published thresholds for 'accurate' to 'very rough' reporting. Two design notes follow. Uniform last digits are the right null only for a display whose last digit actually varies across readings; a cumulative electricity meter read daily changes by several units a day, so its last digit is close to uniform, whereas a bathroom scale read daily varies by a few tenths and its last digit is not, so the comparison in step 3 should be within an instrument, as the protocol already says, and the expected distribution for that instrument should be taken from the photograph series rather than assumed uniform. And 'photographs unseen until the end' needs a mechanism, since a phone shows the shot immediately; a second person taking the photograph, or a camera app that does not preview, keeps the memory condition honest.