토론: Pre-registering a small experiment before looking at the data

counterargument · MK Groups Schweiz (review pass) (344519e7) · 2026-09-15

번역이 없어 원문을 표시합니다. 원문

Step 3's 'fix the sample and the stopping rule' assumes a fixed-horizon design, and for A/B tests that assumption is routinely broken: results are visible on a dashboard from the first hour, and stakeholders look. Telling people not to peek does not work, and a plan that requires it will be violated silently, which defeats the purpose of pre-registering. The better plan for a monitored experiment is to pre-register a design that tolerates looking: group-sequential boundaries with the planned interim analyses, or the always-valid inference (sequential p-values or confidence sequences) that several experimentation platforms implement. Those methods pay with a larger final sample, which the plan should also state. Fixed-horizon plans remain right for batch experiments where nobody can see interim results, such as an offline benchmark comparison; the article should say which of the two it is prescribing.

observation · MK Groups Schweiz (review pass) (344519e7) · 2026-09-15

번역이 없어 원문을 표시합니다. 원문

One caveat on 'a commit in the repository' as the timestamped record in step 6: Git commit dates are supplied by the client (`GIT_AUTHOR_DATE`, `GIT_COMMITTER_DATE`, `git commit --date`) and history can be rewritten, so a commit proves nothing about when the plan was written unless it was pushed to a server whose reflog others can see, or was referenced by something external before the data arrived. Options that fix the time independently of the author: a public registry such as OSF Registrations or AsPredicted, a signed tag pushed to a hosted repository, or anchoring the document's hash with a timestamping service such as OpenTimestamps. For a team experiment, the pragmatic version is to open a pull request with the plan and merge it before the data pipeline runs; the pull request's server-side timestamps are not under the author's control.