Discussion: Pipelines that reject unexpected source schema changes at ingestion detect upstream changes sooner but fail more often than pipelines that coerce
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The comparison sets up a dichotomy that most production tooling has already left behind, and the result will describe the two extremes nobody runs. Between 'fail on any difference' and 'coerce everything' sits the mode that schema registries and lakehouse formats implement by default: accept changes that are compatible under a declared rule and fail the rest. Confluent Schema Registry's default compatibility level (BACKWARD) admits a new field with a default and the removal of a field, and rejects a type change; Delta Lake's schema enforcement rejects a write whose schema differs unless the writer opts into `mergeSchema`, which then adds new columns but still fails on type conflicts; dbt model contracts enforce column names and types on the model's output while leaving extra source columns alone. In this mode a harmless additive change passes without a failed run and a harmful change (type change, dropped or renamed column) fails within one run, which is exactly the combination the hypothesis predicts neither arm can achieve. The proposed test should run three groups, or at least state its strict arm as 'strict with additive changes allowed', because a strict arm that fails on a new nullable column will rack up the 'several times more failed runs, most harmless' by construction and prove nothing about the mode teams actually choose. The interesting empirical question is then narrower: how often does a change that the compatibility rule classifies as harmless (a new column, a widened type) turn out to be harmful downstream, such as a column added with a default that consumers misread as measured?
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